Methodology :: 2006-10-03
Majority Watch, a project of RT Strategies and Constituent Dynamics, comprises telephone surveys conducted using interactive voice recognition (IVR) technology.In each of 30 contested congressional districts, a representative sample of 5,000 likely voters based on previous vote history was selected from state voter registration files. 1,200-1,300 interviews were completed in each district from August 27-30, except in the three Indiana congressional districts where interviews were conducted September 8-10.
Completed interviews were compared to the voter registration file to validate results. Interview were discarded when the surveyed demographic responses did not match the voter file information of the sampled likely voter. In this manner, approximately 1,000 interviews were validated for each district.
Final results were weighted to represent the likely electorate by demographic factors such as age, sex, race and CD geographical subarea. No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than 3 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all voters in a CD were polled.
NOTE: Additional information, including the full survey instrument, is posted in the methodology section of our blog.
Each district polled was divided into sub-areas for purpose of analysis. The geographic sub-areas are as follows:
 | Arizona CD 1 was divided by counties: North/East (Apache, Coconino, Graham, Greenlee, Navajo); and West (Gila, Pinal, Yavapai) |
 | Arizona CD 8 was divided by State Senate Districts (SDs): South (SD 25, 27, 30); North (SD 26); and Central (SD 28, 29) |
 | California CD 4 was divided by counties: North (Butte, Lassen, Modoc, Nevada, Plumas, Sierra); and South (El Dorado, Placer, Sacramento) |
 | California CD 11 was divided by counties: North (San Joaquin); and West (Alameda, Contra Costa, Santa Clara) |
 | Colorado CD 4 was divided by counties: Laramie, and Rest of CD |
 | Colorado CD 7 was divided by State Senate Districts (SDs): West (SD 16, 19); Central (SD 20, 21); and South/East (SD 22, 24, 25, 27, 28, 29, 31) |
 | Connecticut CD 2 was divided by counties: North (Hartford, Litchfield, Tolland, Windham); and South (Middlesex, New Haven, New London) |
 | Connecticut CD 4 was divided State Senate Districts (SDs): South (SD 25, 27, 36); Central (SD 26, 28); and East (SD 21, 22, 23, 32) |
 | Connecticut CD 5 was divided by counties: North (Hartford, Litchfield); and South (Fairfield, New Haven) |
 | Florida CD 13 was divided by State Senate Districts (SDs): North (SD 17, 18, 21); and South (SD 23) |
 | Florida CD 16 was divided by counties: East (Martin, Palm Beach, St. Lucie); and West (Charlotte, Glades, Hendry, Highlands, Okeechobee) |
 | Florida CD 22 was divided by State Senate Districts (SDs): East (SD 25); and West (SD 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 34) |
 | Idaho CD 1 was divided by counties: North (Adams, Benewah, Bonner, Boundary, Clearwater, Idaho, Kootenai, Latah, Lewis, Nez Perce, Shoshone, Valley); and South (Ada, Boise, Canyon, Gem, Owyhee, Payette, Washington) |
 | Illinois CD 6 was divided by State Senate Districts (SDs): North (SD 22, 23, 28, 33, 39); and South (SD 21, 24, 48) |
 | Illinois CD 8 was divided by counties: Cook, Lake and McHenry |
 | Illinois CD 10 was divided by counties: Cook and Lake |
 | Illinois CD 14 was divided by counties: East (Kane, Dupage); and West (Henry, Kendall, Whiteside, Bureau, Dekalb, Lee) |
 | Illinois CD 19 was divided by counties: North (Christian, Effingham, Fayette, Jasper, Montgomery, Sangamon, Shelby); and South (Clay, Edwards, Gallatin, Greene, Hamilton, Hardin, Jefferson, Johnson, Lawrence, Marion, Massac, Pope, Richland, Saline, Wabash, Washington, Wayne, White, Williamson, Bond, Clinton, Jersey, Macoupin, Madison) |
 | Indiana CD 2 was divided by counties: St. Joseph County, and Rest of CD |
 | Indiana CD 8 was divided by counties: South (Vanderburg, Posey, Warrick); North (Vigo, Vermillion, Parke, Putnam, Clay, Owen, Fountain, Warren); and Central (Daviess, Gibson, Greene, Knox, Martin, Pike, Sullivan) |
 | Indiana CD 9 was divided by counties: Southeast (Clark, Floyd); Northeast (Bartholomew, Brown, Dearborn, Jackson, Jefferson, Jennings, Ohio, Ripley, Scott, Switzerland, Washington); and West (Crawford, Dubois, Harrison, Monroe, Orange, Perry, Spencer) |
 | Iowa CD 1 was divided by counties: South (Clinton, Scott); Northeast (Dubuque, Clayton, Delaware, Jones, Jackson); and Northwest (Black Hawk, Butler, Bremer, Buchanan, Fayette) |
 | Iowa CD 2 was divided by counties: North (Cedar, Johnson, Linn, Muscatine); and South (Appanoose, Davis, Des Moines, Henry, Jefferson, Lee, Louisa, Van Buren, Wapello, Washington, Wayne) |
 | Iowa CD 3 was divided by counties: Polk (Des Moines); and Rest of CD |
 | Kentucky CD 3 was divided by State Senate Districts (SDs): Central (SD 19, 33, 35, 37); and Rest of CD (SD 10, 26, 36, 38) |
 | Kentucky CD 4 was divided by counties: East (Boyd, Carter, Elliott, Greenup, Lewis, Nicholas, Bath, Bracken, Fleming, Harrison, Mason, Pendelton, Robertson), North (Boone, Campbell, Kenton); and West (Henry, Oldham, Trimble, Carroll, Gallatin, Grant, Owen, Scott) |
 | Minnesota CD 1 was divided by counties: East (Dodge, Fillmore, Mower, Olmsted, Wabasha, Winona, Freeborn, Houston, Steele, Waseca); and West (Blue Earth, Brown, Cottonwood, Faribault, Jackson, Martin, Murray, Nobles, Rock, Watonwan, Nicollet) |
 | Minnesota CD 6 was divided by counties: Anoka, Washington, and West |
 | Nevada CD 3 was divided by State Senate Districts (SDs): East (SD 1,2,7,10,12); Henderson (SD 5); and West (SD 6,8,9,11) |
 | New Hampshire CD 2 was divided by counties: North (Belknap, Coos, Grafton, Merrimack, Sullivan, Strafford); and South (Cheshire, Hillsborough, Rockingham) |
 | New Jersey CD 7 was divided by counties: East (Middlesex, Union); and West (Hunterdon, Somerset) |
 | New Mexico CD 1 was divided by counties: North (Part of Bernalillo, Sandoval, Santa Fe); and South (Part of Bernalillo, Torrance, Valencia) |
 | New York CD 3 was divided by counties: Nassau and Suffolk |
 | New York CD 19 was divided by counties: East (Dutchess, Putnam, Westchester); and West (Orange, Rockland) |
 | New York CD 20 was divided by counties: North (Essex, Saratoga, Warren, Washington); and South (Columbia, Delaware, Dutchess, Greene, Otsego, Rensselaer) |
 | New York CD 24 was divided by counties: Northeast (Herkimer, Oneida, Otsega); Southeast (Chenango, Broome, Cortland); and West (Cayuga, Ontario, Seneca, Tioga, Tompkins) |
 | New York CD 25 was divided by counties: Onondaga and West (Cayuga, Monroe, Wayne) |
 | New York CD 26 was divided by counties: East (Genesee, Livingston, Monroe, Orleans, Wyoming); and West (Erie, Niagara) |
 | New York CD 29 was divided by counties: North (Monroe, Ontario); and South (Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chemung, Schuyler, Steuben, Yates) |
 | North Carolina CD 8 was divided by counties: South (Anson, Cumberland, Hoke, Richmond, Scotland, Union); and North (Cabarrus, Mecklenburg, Montgomery, Stanly) |
 | North Carolina CD 11 was divided by counties: Buncombe, South (Cherokee, Clay, Macon, Jackson, Transylvania, Henderson, Polk, Rutherford); and North (Graham, Swain, Haywood, Madison, Yancey, McDowell) |
 | Ohio CD 1 was divided by State Senate Districts (SDs): Southeast (SD 7, 9); and Rest of CD (SD 4, 8) |
 | Ohio CD 2 was divided by counties: Hamilton and Rest of CD (Adams, Brown, Clermont, Pike, Scioto, Warren) |
 | Ohio CD 6 was divided by counties: Central (Belmont, Jefferson, Monroe, Noble, Washington); North (Columbiana, Mahoning); and South (Athens, Gallia, Lawrence, Meigs, Scioto) |
 | Ohio CD 12 was divided by counties: Franklin; and Rest of CD (Delaware, Licking) |
 | Ohio CD 15 was divided by State Senate Districts (SDs): East (SD 3, 15); and West (SD 10, 16, 26) |
 | Ohio CD 18 was divided by counties: Central (Muskingum, Guernsey, Licking); North (Belmont, Harrison, Knox, Holmens, Cashocton, Tuscarawas, Carroll); and South (Ross, Hocking, Vinton, Jackson, Morgan, Athens) |
 | Pennsylvania CD 4 was divided by counties: North (Beaver, Butler, Lawrence, Mercer); and South (Allegheny, Westmoreland) |
 | Pennsylvania CD 6 was divided by counties: Chester, Berks, and Montgomery/Lehigh |
 | Pennsylvania CD 7 was divided by counties: Delaware and Rest of CD (Chester, Montgomery) |
 | Pennsylvania CD 8 was divided by State Senate Districts (SDs): North (SD 10, 12, 24); and South (SD 4, 5, 6) |
 | Pennsylvania CD 10 was divided by counties: East (Lackawanna, Luzerne, Pike, Wayne); Northwest (Bradford, Susquehanna, Sullivan, Tioga, Wyoming); and Southwest (Montour, Northumberland, Snyder, Union, Lycoming) |
 | Texas 17 was divided by counties: North (Hood, Johnson, Somervell, Bosque, Hill, Mclennan); and South (Limestone, Robertson, Madison, Brazos, Grimes, Burleson) |
 | Virginia CD 2 was divided by State Senate Districts (SDs): North (SD 1, 2, 6); West (SD 5, 7); and East (SD 8, 14) |
 | Virginia CD 10 was divided by counties: Fairfax, Loudoun and Rest of CD (Clarke, Fauquier, Frederick, Prince Wililam, Warren, Manassas Park City, Manassas City, Winchester City) |
 | Vermont AL was divided by counties: Burlington (Chittenden); North (Caledonia, Essex, Franklin, Washington, Grand Isle, Orange, Orleans); and South (Addison, Bennington, Rutland, Windham, Windsor) |
 | Washington CD 5 was divided by counties: Spokane; and Rest of CD (Adams, Asotin, Columbia, Ferry, Garfield, Lincoln, Okanogan, Pend Oreille, Stevens, Walla Walla, Whitman) |
 | Washington CD 8 was divided by counties and places: Bellevue (Bellevue, Beaux Arts, Clyde Hill, Medina, Hunts Point, Kirkland, Redmond, Newport, Mercer Island, Yarrow Point); East King County and Pierce County |
 | West Virginia CD 1 was divided by counties: Central (Harrison, Marion, Monongalia); East (Grant, Mineral, Preston, Taylor, Tucker); and West (Barbour, Brooke, Doddridge, Gilmer, Hancock, Marshall, Ohio, Pleasants, Ritchie, Tyler, Wetzel, Wood) |
 | Wisconsin CD 8 was divided by counties: Green Bay/Door Co Peninsula (Brown, Door, Kewaunee); South (Outagamie, Waupaca, Shawano); and North (Calumet, Florence, Forest, Langlade, Marinette, Menominee, Oconto, Oneida, Vilas) |
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